Annual Conference: Asia Update. Transformations and Futures of the Middle East in April 2026

Majorities, minorities, and a new regional order

The so-called “minority question,” which is really a question of majorities and minorities, has been a part of the local, national, regional, and international politics of the Middle East since the 19th century and continues to play a role today. In this talk, I will survey how the question of majorities and minorities is currently playing out through local and national dynamics in several states in the region and then broaden the focus to discuss how such interactions are unfolding within the context of the new regional order currently taking shape. This order is characterized by US-backed Israeli unipolarity, which has important consequences for the relationship between the region’s states and some of their minority communities. The talk closes with a brief discussion of what this regional order might mean for the international system more broadly, and especially for both minority communities and small states within this emerging global order.

Rise of the Gulf and Contemporary Middle East

Over the past three decades, the decision-making in the broader Middle East has effectively pivoted towards the Gulf Arab States. On the backdrop of former power centres in Cairo, Damascus and Baghdad becoming weaker, new influential forces have emerged in Doha, Ar-Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi.

The presentation concentrates on three dimensions of this shift. First, the aim is to understand the reasons behind the power shift towards the Arab Gulf. Failure of panarabism, foreign interventions and internal turmoil will be considered.

Second, the regional implications of this power shift are examined. This concerns the effects on the Arab political landscape and social relations. Key themes investigated are sectarianism and the rentier state.

Finally, attention will be given to the relations of Gulf Arab states with other regional middle powers: Türkiye, Israel and Iran. This will uncover the new alliances and conflicts. Latter more often than not leading to persistent instability and war in the contemporary Middle East.

The contemporary Middle East is witnessing profound political, economic, and social transformations that have confronted governments with the fundamental challenge of striking a balance between maintaining political stability and the imperatives of change and reform. This article examines the process of “negotiating between stability and change” within the framework of the evolution of governance patterns in the Middle East. The main research question is how the governments of the region redefine their governance patterns in the face of internal and external pressures, and what mechanisms they employ to maintain legitimacy and manage the transition. Relying on an analytical-theoretical approach and drawing on the literature of political science, comparative governance, and Middle East studies, the article examines concepts such as political legitimacy, institutional capacity of the state, state-society relations, and the role of civil society in transformation processes. In this framework, it is shown that many Middle Eastern governments do not follow a linear transition to democracy, but rather use controlled reforms, institutional centralization, and selective management of political participation in the form of hybrid governance patterns. The paper also examines the impact of external factors, including international pressures, security considerations, and geopolitical developments, on the path of governance reform. The analytical findings suggest that the future of governance in the Middle East depends more than anything on the degree of institutional resilience of states, their ability to manage crises, and the creation of new forms of political legitimacy. This research attempts to contribute to the theoretical literature on political transformation in the Middle East by providing a conceptual framework for understanding governance in transition.

Rhetorics of Religious Solidarity: Türkiye, the Turkic World, and the Uyghur–Palestinian Contrast

This paper examines how Türkiye employs religion as soft power to strengthen its position within the Turkic World of Central Asia and across broader Muslim communities. Drawing on the activities and discourse of institutions such as the Presidency of Religious Affairs (Diyanet) and the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TİKA), the study explores how religious outreach, humanitarian initiatives, and cultural projects contribute to the construction of a shared Turkic-Islamic civilisational space.

At the same time, this vision encounters a significant tension in the Uyghur question. While Uyghurs are frequently framed in Turkish discourse as both Turkic kin and fellow Muslims within the Turkic World, their situation in Xinjiang exposes the limits of Turkey’s ability to speak up within the broader Turkic geography.

A comparison between the Uyghurs and the Palestinians further illuminates this dynamic. Both communities are portrayed in Turkish rhetoric as persecuted Muslim populations whose protection carries moral significance. Yet both remain largely outside Türkiye’s direct sphere of influence, meaning that solidarity is expressed primarily through diplomatic and rhetorical means. The tone of this rhetoric, however, differs; support for Palestinians is strong and direct, while references to Uyghurs tend to be more cautious and restrained.

BIOGRAPHY

Dr Helen Haas is a Middle East researcher at the Faculty of Theology and Religious Studies and the Middle East Coordinator at the Asia Centre, University of Tartu. Her research focuses on the diversity of Islam, particularly the Alevi communities in Turkey, as well as Islamic minorities in non-Muslim societies and Christian minorities in Muslim-majority countries. She teaches Turkish and courses on Islamic history and culture, and works as an interpreter and translator of Turkish literature. She is the managing editor of the Usuteaduslik Ajakiri (Journal of Religion).

Recent Developments in ISIS Activities and Propaganda: Expansion and Foreign Fighters

ISIS has been highly effective in recruiting foreign fighters through sophisticated propaganda and exploitation of social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook (Segond et al 2028). Their propaganda often combines global religious appeals with local grievances to attract recruits from diverse backgrounds (Pokalova 2020, Johnston 2022). The recruitment of foreign fighters has been a significant aspect of ISIS’s strategy. Many recruits have come from countries with higher Human Development Index levels, high unemployment rates, and significant Muslim populations (Pokalova 2019). These fighters often return to their home countries with military training and a network.

Despite losses in 2017, ISIS has continued to pose a significant threat due to its unconventional recruitment strategies and persistent propaganda (Johnston 2022). The al-Sina’a prison break in Hasaka city in 2022 is a notable example of ISIS’s attempts to regain strength. This operation highlighted ISIS’s ongoing capability to orchestrate complex attacks and mobilise its remaining forces. As the situation in Syria is in constant change, so is the situation with ISIS.

This presentation provides an overview of ISIS developments in recent years until 2026, including the recruitment of foreign fighters and ISIS’s expansion and their impact to Estonia. This presentation also discusses a recent case involving an Estonian citizen from Ida-Viru County who was detained at Tallinn Airport while attempting to travel to Syria to join ISIS.

BIOGRAPHY

Dr Oksana Belova-Dalton is a research fellow in international relations at the Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies, University of Tartu. Her research focuses on discourse analysis, issues and structures of terrorism – particularly in the Estonian context – and Russia studies, with a special emphasis on extreme Russian nationalism and hybrid warfare. From 2022 to 2025, she completed the MLitt in Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St Andrews.

Dr Heidi Maiberg is an extremism researcher who defended her doctorate at Royal Holloway, University of London. Her main area of interest is related to the processes involved in supporting deradicalisation and disengagement. Her doctoral thesis focused on mapping ways in which tertiary prevention programmes in Europe and North America measure the impact of their interventions. She has also studied ways how to support preventing violent extremism through education. Her MOOC "Radicalisation: Entering, Exiting, and Preventing Extremism" received the Estonian e-course quality label in 2023.

Changing Trends in Abū Muḥammad al-Ǧawlānī’s Speeches: A Rhetorical Analysis

There exists a strong set of ideas in the speeches of traditional Islamist leaders. (Global) ǧihād, šarīʿa state and the ever present internal and external enemy, can be listed as the main three. All three are connected to each other in a certain sequence. In Abū Muḥammad al-Ǧawlānī’s speeches, the three topics are present but eloquently put in his own way and showing also some changing trends in comparison with the speeches of the leaders of a-Qāʿida and ISIS. The corpus contains speeches from both periods, from the time when he was mostly known by the name Abū Muḥammad al-Ǧawlānī and from the time after his takeover as the de facto president of Syria. The aim of this paper is to approach the speeches from the compositional point of view while applying a method originally from the Biblical studies. The rhetorical analysis here is based on two main works on Semitic rhetoric by Roland Meynet – “Rhetorical Analysis: An Introduction to Biblical Rhetoric“ (2012) and his “Treatise on Biblical Rhetoric”; and works by Michel Cuypers on Qurʾānic  rhetoric – “Le Festin: Une Lecture de la Sourate al-Māʾida” (2007), “La Composition du Coran” (2012) and “Une apocalypse coranique. Une lecture des trente-trois dernieres sourates du Coran” (2014). The analysis illustrates the concentric design of the textual patterns by grouping parallelisms on different hierarchical textual levels. The regularity and change of rhetorical features, the central ideas and pattern of central and peripheral terms, automatic design of putting forward the main points or ideas, are among the devices designing the presentation of subsequent topics. Simultaneously, the deep-structure analysis helps bring forward less noticeable details.

Reshaping Authority from Within: Gender, Halakhic Power, and Military Service in Religious Zionism

Religious Zionist women in Israel are reshaping gendered authority not by rejecting halakhic structures, but by strategically working from within them. Drawing on advanced Torah study and insider religious literacy, they reinterpret halakhic frameworks in ways that expand women’s authority while preserving religious legitimacy. Using theories of tempered radicalism and productive power, the paper traces how women build parallel institutions – midrashoth, halakhic advisory initiatives, and advocacy organizations—that subtly redistribute interpretive and communal power within a central religious-national movement.

These shifts are increasingly visible in the growing number of Religious Zionist women enlisting in the Israel Defence Forces, often despite rabbinic discouragement. Their enlistment reframes military service as a religiously meaningful act, illustrating how authority in Israel’s religious sphere is becoming negotiated rather than imposed. By situating these developments within broader debates in the sociology of religion and feminist theory, the paper argues that piety itself can become a driver of institutional and political change.

BIOGRAPHY

Dr Anu Põldsam is a scholar of Jewish thought and identity and a lecturer in Jewish Studies at the University of Tartu. Her research spans the Hebrew Bible, Jewish intellectual history, and contemporary Israeli society, bridging classical scholarship with present-day developments. She has taught Hebrew and Judaism since 2012, published widely, and contributed expert commentary on Israeli politics. Alongside her academic work, she actively engages in public discourse and training on Israel-related topics.

Green Energy Transition as an Economic Opportunity: The Case of Estonian Companies in Oman

The green transition has been adopted as one of the national pillars of Oman’s Vision Strategy. On the one hand, this creates transitional challenges, as the country moves from a resource-based economy toward green and sustainable energy. However, the green transition is not only about energy transformation; it also entails broader economic restructuring. The development of green energy technologies, subsidized and supported by the Omani government, creates additional employment and business opportunities.

One of the subdimensions of the green transition is digital development, particularly in the area of public services. Two Estonian companies — Nortal and Positium — have identified this niche demand and established their activities in Oman. Nortal operates as a developer of e-government solutions, while Positium provides innovative data solutions in mobility and population analytics.

This presentation considers these two Estonian companies as cases of successful business operations and sheds light on how foreign companies can engage with emerging green and digital trends in Oman specifically and in the broader Middle Eastern region.
 

Water, Power, and Conflict: Iraq’s Security Under Pressure

Iraq’s water crisis is increasingly a matter of national security, shaped by environmental stress and regional geopolitics. The country depends heavily on transboundary rivers such as the Tigris and Euphrates, making it highly vulnerable to upstream policies, particularly those of Iran. Iran’s dam construction and water diversion from tributaries like the Karunhave reduced flows into Iraq, especially in the south, affecting agriculture, drinking water supply, and ecological stability.

Water scarcity in Iraq acts as a “threat multiplier,” intensifying economic hardship, social unrest, and internal displacement. These pressures are further complicated by the current instability and military tensions involving Iran. Ongoing or escalating conflict increases uncertainty over resource management, as Tehran is likely to prioritize domestic needs and strategic interests during periods of crisis. This may result in reduced transboundary water flows and limited cooperation with downstream states.

In such a context, water can also become a geopolitical instrument, reinforcing Iran’s regional leverage. For Iraq, this deepens vulnerability, as weak governance and limited institutional capacity constrain its ability to respond effectively.

Ultimately, Iraq’s water insecurity reflects the intersection of environmental scarcity, conflict dynamics, and geopolitical dependence. As regional tensions persist, the risk that water scarcity will contribute to broader instability—and potentially future conflict—remains significant.

Political Economy of Climate Change in the Middle East

The Middle East is among the regions most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, facing intertwined environmental, economic, and political challenges that complicate both mitigation and adaptation efforts. Characterised by hot, arid, and semi-arid climates, the region is warming at nearly twice the global average, intensifying structural pressures such as water scarcity, food insecurity, sea level rise, and the growing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including sandstorms and tropical cyclones. These climate stresses cut across critical sectors—from agriculture to energy systems and urban infrastructure—amplifying existing vulnerabilities.

Beyond physical risks, climate change in the Middle East is deeply embedded in the region’s political economy. Resource dependence, particularly on hydrocarbons, shapes state capacity, fiscal resilience, and policy priorities, often contradicts the scope of climate action. At the same time, uneven wealth distribution, demographic pressures, and reliance on energy- and water-intensive development models heighten exposure to climate shocks while complicating reform pathways. Climate impacts therefore not only threaten environmental sustainability but also risk exacerbating socio-economic inequalities, fiscal strain, and governance challenges.

This paper argues that understanding climate change in the Middle East requires a political economy lens that captures how structural dependencies and institutional dynamics mediate both vulnerability and response. It highlights the need for integrated, cross-sectoral strategies that align climate resilience with economic diversification and governance reform to ensure long-term sustainability and stability.

Rethinking World Order: Deep Pluralism and the Middle East’s Global Turn

The contemporary international system is shifting away from a Western-dominated world order toward a more fragmented and plural global configuration. This presentation argues that this transition is best understood through deep pluralism, whereby emerging non-Western powers do not simply seek accommodation within existing institutions but actively contest the normative and strategic foundations of Western hegemony. Rather than converging on a single model of order, global politics is increasingly shaped by multiple power centres and governance logics. Within this evolving landscape, the Middle East has emerged as a critical arena of global transformation. At the regional level, shifting power balances and alliance structures illustrate how Middle Eastern actors are navigating and shaping the erosion of Western dominance. Iran offers a key example through its use of deterrence, ideological narratives, and transnational networks to challenge Western influence, while also confronting strategic constraints and long-term costs. Other regional powers have pursued distinct pathways of adaptation. Turkey has expanded its diplomatic, security, and economic reach, positioning itself as a pivotal actor across regional and global agendas. Gulf states have leveraged economic statecraft, mediation, and soft power to diversify partnerships and enhance strategic autonomy. These regional transformations are increasingly shaping Europe’s engagement with the Middle East and challenging established assumptions about influence and dependency. As Middle Eastern actors assert greater agency, the region is no longer merely a site of external intervention but an active contributor to global power reconfiguration. Situated within the framework of deep pluralism, this presentation highlights the Middle East’s role in accelerating the transition toward a less Western-centric international order.

BIOGRAPHY
Dr Alam Saleh is Honorary Senior Lecturer in Iranian Studies at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University. Dr Saleh is also Reviews Editor for the British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies. He received his PhD, MA and BA from the School of Politics and International Studies at the University of Leeds. Dr Saleh is Fellow of Higher Education Academy and he has previously taught undergraduate and graduate courses on International Relations, Security Studies and Middle East Politics at Lancaster, Exeter, Durham, Leeds, and Bradford Universities. Dr Saleh has also been engaged with policy practitioners and external professional bodies such as the UK Ministry of Defence, NATO, European Council on Foreign Relations, and has also consulted for Transparency International Defence & Security, and UN.

Beyond Bias: Structural and Cultural Determinants of Western Media Coverage of Gaza

Recent scholarship has documented systematic anti-Palestinian bias in the coverage of the Gaza genocide by Western legacy media, highlighting patterns of dehumanization, asymmetrical sourcing, and the normalization of Israeli state violence. While this body of work has been crucial in identifying discursive outcomes, comparatively less attention has been paid to the deeper political, economic, and cultural structures that shape and constrain journalistic practice in these outlets. This presentation seeks to address that gap by shifting the analytical focus from media texts alone to the broader conditions of their production. Drawing on political economy of the media, critical discourse analysis, and postcolonial theory, the presentation examines how factors such as ownership structures, reliance on official sources, geopolitical alignments, professional norms of “objectivity,” and enduring Orientalist frameworks interact to produce consistently skewed representations of Palestine and Palestinians. The presentation argues that anti-Palestinian bias cannot be adequately understood as the result of individual journalistic failures or isolated editorial decisions, but must instead be situated within institutionalized power relations that privilege certain lives, narratives, and forms of suffering over others. By foregrounding these structural dimensions, the presentation contributes to ongoing debates about media accountability, epistemic injustice, and the role of journalism in contexts of colonial violence and mass atrocity.

BIOGRAPHY

Khaled Ezzelarab is Director of the Middle East Studies Program at the American University in Cairo (AUC) and Associate Professor of Practice in Journalism and Mass Communication. He previously spent 17 years as a journalist with international and pan-Arab media, including the BBC World Service, covering major regional events such as the Gaza wars, the Egyptian uprising, and the Syrian conflict.

He later led Aswat Masriya at the Thomson Reuters Foundation, where he drove significant audience growth, and served as a senior news editor at Sky News Arabia. Since joining AUC in 2020, he has launched the Reporting History talk series and two podcasts, Hikayat Masriyya and Middle East Talks. His work focuses on the intersection of journalism and academia, with a particular interest in Middle East politics and media.

Central and Eastern European converts to Islam who migrate to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) occupy a unique position as Europeans living in majority-Muslim societies. Although their decision to relocate was often motivated by a desire for a more supportive Islamic environment, and many prefer their MENA homes over their countries of origin, they often do not fully acculturate into the host society. Instead, they frequently highlight differences between their own understanding of Islam and that of born Muslims. Building on related scholarship on converts’ often complicated relations with born Muslims in Europe this paper explores whether similar dynamics persist once converts move to Muslim-majority contexts. Drawing on eleven semi-structured interviews with converts from Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia residing across North Africa, the Mashreq, and the Gulf, the paper examines how respondents narrate their experiences of belonging and alienation in MENA region.

BIOGRAPHY
Dr Katarzyna Górak-Sosnowska is a Professor of Sociology and head of the Middle East and Central Asia Unit at SGH Warsaw School of Economics. Her research explores Islam in Poland and Eastern Europe, Islamophobia, conversion to Islam, racialisation and whiteness, as well as governance and administration in higher education. Her articles have appeared in leading journals such as the “Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies”, “Journal of Muslims in Europe”, and “Patterns of Prejudice”. She serves as Editor of the “Journal of Muslims in Europe” (Brill). Her academic and public engagement have been recognised with several awards, including the Polish Minister of Science Award for scientific achievements (2024).

Collision or Complementarity? India’s Strategic Autonomy and High-Income Small States’ Agency: The UAE and Oman

India’s foreign policy combines global power status seeking with a sustained pursuit of strategic autonomy. In the Middle East, this posture coincides with deeper ties with high-income small states (HISSs) such as Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where India’s political, economic, and people-to-people connectivity is dense. Yet asymmetry does not determine outcomes. Small-state scholarship challenges the view of small states as “system-ineffectual,” highlighting their capacity to convert constraints into agency. This generates a puzzle. Strategic autonomy aims to insulate decision-making from external influence, yet dense connectivity creates dependencies that may expand the bargaining space of small states. Are India’s autonomy practices and HISS agency on a collision course, or can they be mutually enabling? Building on IR concepts of (i) strategic autonomy (policy independence and status autonomy), (ii) connectivity as interdependence across political, economic, and societal domains, and (iii) small-state strategy mixes (hedging, accommodation, and selective constraints short of direct confrontation), the paper develops a comparative framework for tracing how HISS agency is operationalised under asymmetry and how it feeds back into India’s strategic autonomy. Empirically, the study compares the India–UAE and India–Oman dyads since the mid-2010s, triangulating joint statements and cooperation instruments with connectivity patterns. It argues that Oman and the UAE exercise consequential agency by shaping the costs and benefits of India’s strategic autonomy across three arenas as follows: (1) energy and investment linkages, (2) diaspora and labour governance as leverage within people-to-people connectivity, and (3) strategic connectivity and defence cooperation.

BIOGRAPHY

Dr Agnieszka Nitza-Makowska is a Research Fellow at the Asia Centre, University of Tartu, Estonia and an Assistant Professor at the Institute of Political Science and International Relations at Civitas University in Warsaw, Poland. Her current work focuses on small states, soft power, environmental diplomacy and strategic autonomy with a regional emphasis on China, India, and Pakistan.

Israel's War with Iran and the Limits of China’s Middle East Balancing

This paper examines the recent US–Israel military campaign against Iran while situating the conflict within the evolving dynamics of China–Israel relations. It evaluates the extent to which Israel influenced Washington’s decision to escalate and how the conflict reshapes Israel’s broader external partnerships, including with China. The paper argues that while Israel played a critical role in shaping threat perceptions and operational momentum, the United States’ direct involvement was ultimately driven by its own calculations regarding deterrence credibility, force protection, and the risks of wider regional escalation.

At the same time, the conflict has broader implications for China–Israel relations. China has historically sought to maintain a pragmatic partnership with Israel in technology, trade, and innovation while simultaneously deepening ties with Iran and the Gulf states. The escalation of the Iran conflict places increasing strain on this balancing strategy. As tensions affect regional energy security, maritime stability in the Strait of Hormuz, and the political environment surrounding the Palestinian issue, Beijing faces growing pressure to reconcile its economic interests, diplomatic positioning, and evolving relations with Israel. The paper therefore argues that the crisis highlights not only Israel’s security calculations but also the structural limits of China’s “equidistant” approach in an increasingly polarized Middle Eastern strategic landscape.

BIOGRAPHY

Dr Jing Lin is a research fellow at the Middle East Institute in National University of Singapore. She is specialising in Middle East studies, with research interests in Israel studies, cultural diplomacy, and inter-Asian relations. She earned her PhD in Religious Studies from Peking University, China and served as a Senior Lecturer at the School of Asian & African Studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University. She has published on China–Middle East relations, interfaith dialogue, and the politics of cultural exchange, and translated several Hebrew literary works into Chinese.

From Small State to Middle Power: based on the case study of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)

This presentation analyses the rise of the UAE from a British protectorate with approximately 180,000 inhabitants in 1968 to a state with a population exceeding 11 million today, with significant influence both regionally and globally. While developments in the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are often explained through Rentier State Theory (RST), which emphasises economic factors, this presentation argues that such accounts tend to overlook the small-state characteristics of most GCC members and therefore applies Small State Theory (SST) as an analytical framework.

The broader aim is to examine the survival strategies of small states in a globalised world, where structural constraints associated with small size render them more vulnerable than larger states. Combining SST’s core concern with security and a decolonial perspective, the presentation offers a new lens for understanding developments in the GCC. It argues that the UAE’s foreign policy success is rooted in its domestic political and socio-economic strategies and that context-specific local expertise is central to small-state survival.

The presentation first outlines key historical and contextual factors shaping the UAE’s contemporary security strategy, including the colonial period, local religio-cultural context, and socio-economic needs, highlighting their decisive impact on current state and social structures. The main focus is an analysis of the mechanisms that have ensured economic and societal security since independence in 1971, with particular attention to the effects of the wakāla (commercial sponsorship) and kafala (labour sponsorship) systems on political stability in a state where migrants constitute around 90% of the population. The analysis also highlights the integral role of migrants in state-building, sustaining the national economy, and enabling the UAE’s transformation from a peripheral small state into an autonomous global actor.

BIOGRAPHY

Terje Kivist holds a master’s degree in interior architecture from the Estonian Academy of Arts and in Middle East Studies from the University of Exeter, with a focus on the Gulf states. With 15 years of entrepreneurial experience, her primary interests lie in the business environments and socio-economic security in small open economies. In her master’s thesis, she analysed the impact of the migration management model used in
The Gulf Cooperation Council states on their political stability.

This study examines how zakāt is constructed and instrumentalised in the Islamic State’s English-language propaganda, focusing on the magazines Dabiq (2014–2016) and Rumiyah (2016–2017). While existing scholarship has extensively analysed ISIS’s financing mechanisms and media strategies, comparatively little attention has been paid to the symbolic and ideological role of zakāt within its propaganda discourse. Using qualitative content analysis, this research identifies the thematic contexts in which zakāt appears and analyses how its imposition is justified to an international audience.

The findings show that zakāt is consistently framed as a core religious obligation, inseparable from the other pillars of Islam, and is repeatedly presented as proof of the legitimacy of the so-called Caliphate. Propaganda narratives emphasise the establishment of zakāt offices, the collection and redistribution of alms, and the portrayal of these practices as evidence of proper Islamic governance. At the same time, resistance to zakāt is discursively linked to apostasy, disbelief, and rebellion, drawing heavily on selective Qur’anic verses, hadith, and historical references to the Ridda wars under the first caliph, Abū Bakr. This framing serves to legitimise coercion and violence against those who refuse payment.

The analysis also indicates a shift in emphasis between Dabiq and Rumiyah: while Dabiq places comparatively greater emphasis on zakāt within administrative practices of collection and distribution during ISIS’s territorial peak, Rumiyah reduces this institutional framing as the group’s capacity for governance declines, and instead introduces a stronger sectarian framing; however, coercive and punitive interpretations of zakāt remain dominant in both magazines. Overall, the study shows that zakāt functions not only as an economic resource but also as a central propaganda tool through which Islamic State constructs religious authority, enforces obedience, and sustains its claim to statehood.

BIOGRAPHY

Kristina Saad is a PhD student in Cultural Studies at Tallinn University. Specialising in Middle Eastern studies and terrorism studies, her research focuses on the narrative of zakāt in the Islamic State’s propaganda nagazines. She holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Tartu, as well as both a Bachelor’s and a Master’s degree in Middle Eastern Studies from Tallinn University. She has also studied in several Middle Eastern countries. Alongside this research, she has delivered lectures on Afghanistan and has taught Arabic language courses.

Foreign Aid and Hybrid Governance in Lebanon: Reshaping Political Authority in Crisis

Lebanon’s extended political and economic crises have intensified the presence of foreign aid and humanitarian interventions across multiple sectors. In a political system long characterized by fragmented authority, sectarian intermediaries, and external influence, aid increasingly shapes how public governance is organized and carried out. This paper examines how foreign aid interacts with hybrid governance reshaping political authority and sovereignty.

This paper adopts a qualitative case study approach, drawing on secondary literature and selected policy and donor documents to conceptualize aid as a governance mechanism integrated into domestic political orders rather than simply a technical solution to crisis. It examines three interconnected processes. First, donor practices frequently bypass state institutions, redistributing decision-making authority toward international agencies and non-state actors. Second, aid flows tend to strengthen certain intermediaries, including politically affiliated organizations and sectarian proxy actors linked to external powers, thus reinforcing uneven power relations and informal governance networks. Third, increased humanitarian governance redefines accountability, shifting responsibility to donors while blurring political accountability to citizens.

The paper argues that even though these processes can stabilize short-term service provision, they also create long-term governance fragmentation and externalized authority. Rather than promoting institutional growth, aid contributes to the durability of hybrid governance by normalizing crisis management and lowering incentives for political reform. By placing Lebanon within wider debates on hybrid governance and external influence in the Middle East, the article sheds light on how international and domestic actors interact to reshape political authority during crisis and instability.

BIOGRAPHY
Mira Al Aridi is a PhD candidate in International Relations and Political Science at Corvinus University of Budapest. Her research focuses on the political determinants of health, foreign aid, and governance in fragile contexts, with a particular focus on Lebanon. She holds a Master's degree in Health Policy and is a Research Fellow at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, where she contributes to Middle East policy analysis and humanitarian research.

Beyond Autocratization: Political Context and State–Civil Society Relations in Egypt

Since the Arab uprisings of the early 2010s, relations between the Egyptian state and civil society organizations (CSOs) have become increasingly restrictive and co-optive, even as the state has grown more reliant on CSOs in advancing its developmental agenda.

Current academic scholarship tends to explain this transformation through the lens of autocratization, but it largely overlooks the broader political context in which these shifts occur.  To address this gap, this presentation addresses the question “How have changes in the domestic and international political context shaped state–civil society relations in Egypt since the Arab uprisings?”

To address this question, the presentation examines how differing political contexts in the Mubarak era and the post-2013 state-building period shaped government policies toward civil society. This presentation argues that shifts in state–civil society relations reflect a convergence of factors, including waning international support for civil society, deteriorating socio-political conditions, and declining trust in international actors. The analysis draws on data from interviews with civil society practitioners, government officials, and experts on Egyptian civil society from a broader PhD project. 

The findings of this research offer insight into how the interaction between international and domestic factors has shaped state–civil society relations in Egypt since 2013. The findings also raise questions about whether similar dynamics may be observable in other Middle Eastern contexts, suggesting avenues for future comparative research on changing state–civil society relations in the region. The study also contributes to ongoing discussions about international civil society support by highlighting potential limitations of existing approaches and underscoring the importance of situating such strategies within their broader political context.

BIOGRAPHY

Salma Khalil is a Political Science PhD Candidate at Cairo University’s Faculty of Economics and Political Science. She holds an MPP from the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy and a BSc in Political Science from Loughborough University. Her research focuses on state–civil society relations in the MENA region, democratization, and democratic backsliding. She is currently an assistant lecturer of political science at the European Universities in Egypt and has previously worked with several leading regional NGOs.

Weaponising the mind: Russia’s cognitive warfare on the example of the Valdai Club

With the growth of non-kinetic fighting between the states, the use of cognitive warfare has been on the rise as one form of engaging in indirect conflict. In cognitive warfare, the aim is to target the subconscious of the audience by disrupting and distorting the sense of reality and security. This is done with the intent to eventually manipulate the behavior of the target and change their decision-making process. The influenced minds of the people become a weapon to achieve the state's national interests. As national interests are deeply embedded in states` foreign policies, the goal of the current study is to explore how cognitive biases are changing and what is their interconnection with foreign policy change. As a case, Russia and its portrayal of the West are chosen to see that change on a cognitive and official foreign policy level. The tool for exploring this phenomenon in this research is the Valdai Discussion Club, which is a think tank that is considered an extension of Russia’s central government.

The case is examined through critical discourse analysis, which helps to determine cognitive constructions and demystify ideologies and power (the content, ideas, hidden meanings, etc.) in the chosen documents, which are the reports by the Valdai Club and Russia’s official foreign policy strategy document, Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation (2023). The expected result is that the depiction of the West in Russia’s official foreign policy document mirrors the narrative produced by the Valdai Club, and that the framings and narratives align. As an additional layer of analysis, the research also looks at Russia’s perceptions of the West’s allies on the example of the Middle East. Here, the goal is to see whether the narrative about the West extends to Russia’s other relations. The Middle East is a good case here, because the region is important for both Russia and the West.

The value of this research is that it uncovers Russia’s deeper and hidden narratives about the West; it looks at the connection between think tanks and government rhetoric, and finally, it analyzes Russia’s foreign policy through critical discourse analysis, which can be applied to looking at other regions and states, and Russia’s relations with them. Therefore, this study can be a pilot research in rethinking foreign policy analysis, tools for achieving national interests, and a broader direction of future conduct of relations between states in their use of non-kinetic warfare.

BIOGRAPHY
Maria-Elisabeth Mihhin has a BA in Political Science and is currently finishing her MA in International Relations and Regional Studies. Her areas of specialization and interest include Russia & Eurasia and Southeast Asia. She has had internships at the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, one of which she spent at the Estonian embassy in Georgia, exploring local attitudes and situation concerning the EU integration. Most recently, she spent an exchange semester in the Republic of Turkey studying its foreign policy, social reality, and outlooks towards the EU. Her research interests include foreign policy analysis, national identity and its formation, and social psychology.