Read Agnieszka Nitza-Makowska's publication on Moscow’s Nuclear Blackmail

Agnieszka Nitza-Makowska's article „Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine and South Asia: What Are the Implications of Moscow’s Nuclear Blackmail for India and Pakistan?" has just been published in Przegląd Strategiczny

Author shortly brings out the following:
1. Russia’s nuclear brinkmanship has altered global perceptions of nuclear risk, temporarily shifting attention away from South Asia.
Nitza-Makowska notes that Russia’s use of nuclear threats during its invasion of Ukraine reframed international concern about nuclear escalation, which had long focused on South Asia due to the enduring rivalry between India and Pakistan. While the region remains sensitive and prone to tension, Moscow’s actions have drawn global scrutiny to the use of nuclear rhetoric as a tool of coercion. This shift has not eliminated risks in South Asia but has provided a comparative context in which the nuclear dynamics of the region are seen alongside broader global patterns of deterrence and brinkmanship.

2. Constructivist theory offers insight into how India and Pakistan understand their nuclear roles in light of international developments.
Drawing on constructivism, Nitza-Makowska explains that states construct their identities and policies based on historical experience and international interaction. For India and Pakistan, Russia’s nuclear signalling during the Ukraine conflict has reinforced long-held beliefs in the importance of nuclear deterrence for national security. The lessons drawn from Ukraine’s denuclearisation and subsequent vulnerability are particularly resonant, shaping both countries’ views of nuclear weapons as essential to survival—even as regional developments continue to test these postures in real time.

3. Responses to nuclear coercion reflect both strategic calculation and normative identity.
According to Nitza-Makowska, both India and Pakistan have in the past signalled caution in the face of global nuclear coercion, recognising the reputational and economic costs borne by states that rely on nuclear threats. These lessons remain relevant as the region navigates renewed tensions. While the risk of escalation is never absent, the author suggests that maintaining a posture of restraint—where possible—can help reinforce perceptions of strategic maturity and reduce the likelihood of external condemnation or isolation. Ultimately, her analysis implies that careful signalling, rooted in identity and norms as much as in capability, will shape how nuclear-armed South Asian states are perceived and engaged with globally.

Full article is available here

Please use the following referencing:
Nitza-Makowska, A. (2024). Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine and South Asia: What Are the Implications of Moscow’s Nuclear Blackmail for India and Pakistan?. Przegląd Strategiczny, (17), 77–90. https://doi.org/10.14746/ps.2024.1.5