Report on Central Asia in September 2025

The report provides an overview of emerging trends observed in September 2025 regarding the shifting influence of Russia and China in Central Asia.

Authors: Alevtina Solovyeva, Betti Marie Peterson, Carl Frederick Liles, Ismet Suleymanov, Jonathan Darvish-Kojori, Rodion Krupin, Vladimir Sazonov

„The EU and Estonia are at a critical juncture in its relations with Central Asia. The EU can accomplish its goals of curtailing the threat posed by Russia to both Europe and Central Asia, but will likely need to commit to significant strategic goals which demand sizable economic and political investments in an uncertain environment,“ conclude the authors.

Full report

The EU’s and Estonia’s relations with Central Asia have reached a critical point: authoritarian tendencies in the region are deepening, and ties with Russia and China are becoming increasingly intertwined. Therefore, strengthening cooperation remains essential for the EU. A significant shift has occurred in the energy sector — in addition to natural gas, there is growing interest in nuclear and renewable energy. This, in turn, means that competing with Russia would require the EU to make substantial and high-risk investments. Although the potential for cooperation is considerable, success depends on a well-considered strategy, the upholding of democratic values, and skillful risk management to avoid the consolidation of authoritarian regimes.