Report on Russia-Pakistan-China Relations. December 2025

In her recent report, Agnieszka Małgorzata Nitza-Makowska, a Research Fellow at the University of Tartu Asia Centre, examines the relationship between Russia and Pakistan, as well as the dynamics between Russia, China, and Pakistan.

Author: Agnieszka Małgorzata Nitza-Makowska

Title: Russia–Pakistan Relations and the Russia–China–Pakistan Axis: From South Asia’s Fault Lines to Global Spillover

Full report in PDF

This report examines Russia’s evolving ties with Pakistan and the emerging strategic triangle between Russia, China, and Pakistan. It also highlights how these alignments both mirror South Asia’s fault lines and generate global spillover effects. Since Russia’s 2014 isolation from the West, its ties with Pakistan have shifted from neglect to pragmatic cooperation in energy, security, and connectivity — including the Pakistan Stream gas pipeline and discounted oil sales. While Russia avoids formally joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), it engages selectively to benefit from infrastructure without straining ties with India.

Pakistan’s “non-alignment 2.0” approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine combines neutrality, sanctions avoidance, and deepening economic ties, reflecting a broader trend in the Global South toward strategic flexibility rather than bloc politics. The emerging Russia–China–Pakistan axis, though still limited, is shaped by shared concerns over Afghanistan, dissatisfaction with U.S. policy, and interlinked infrastructure strategies. Its potential consolidation could heighten regional rivalries, challenge U.S. influence, and contribute to a fragmented multipolar order.

For Europe and NATO’s frontline states, such as Estonia, these shifts complicate efforts to contain Russia’s strategic options. Russia’s increasing presence in conflict-prone regions and flexible partnerships across the Global South underscore the need for broader situational awareness that includes Asia-focused dynamics and non-alignment trends.