Report: The Taiwan Strait Situation

University of Tartu Asia Centre published a report, "The Taiwan Strait Situation" that examines the challenges Estonia would face in the event of a major conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The report's author Daniel T. Riether addresses three key problems a major conflict in the Taiwan Strait would create for Estonia as of March 2025.

Read the full report

IN A NUTSHELL

Author Daniel T. Riether brings out the following:

Firstly, a conflict in the Taiwan Strait threatens to pull the United States into the war. A Chinese incursion plan would require heavy infringements on Japanese and Philippine waters, whom the United States is obligated to defend per their mutual defense agreements. If the United States comes to their allies’ aid, this potentially pulls NATO and Estonia into the conflict. If the United States ignores their contractual obligations and does not assist their allies, it severely undermines the deterrence value of American defense agreements with both East Asian and European partners, creating space for Russian opportunism.

Secondly, any conflict over the Taiwan Strait will undoubtedly spill over into the South China Sea, a massive region and trade route connecting Europe with East Asia. China asserts sovereignty over this sea in near entirety, conflicting with overlapping Vietnamese, Philippine, and Malaysian territorial claim. If Chinese and Taiwanese forces face off in the South China Sea, it will likely draw the other claimants into conflict as well, resulting in global supply disruptions due to the interruption of a critical trade route. In Estonia’s case, disruption of the South China Sea, as well as Japanese and Philippine waters integral to Chinese operational interests will be devastating for the electronics industry.

Thirdly, an assault on Taiwan nullifies any economic incentives for China to maintain neutral relations with Europe. If China is serious about taking Taiwan they must be willing to sacrifice trade relations with the West, and this will likely push China and Russia closer towards a formal alliance. Should such a scenario unfold, Estonia must be ready for the threat of an openly hostile China economically and militarily aligning itself with Russia.