Report: Russia and China's influence in Central Asia

The report by the University of Tartu Asia Centre and Centre for Oriental Studies provides an overview of developments in Central Asia and highlights potential risks in the region, such as terrorism, the rise of radical Islamism, growing authoritarian tendencies, human rights violations, and challenges related to climate change and democratic institutions and values. The region is exposed to the information influence activities of the Russian Federation, the growing assertiveness of the People's Republic of China, and the hybrid operations of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

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The countries in Central Asia are marked by weak societal cohesion, largely rooted in the societal transformations and issues of the Soviet Era, but also in current political, social, and cultural differences among various social groups, as well as national and religious minorities. The call for enhancing regional cooperation has primarily come from the authorities of Kazakhstan, the most developed country in the region. For instance, in 2007, Kazakhstan urged the Central Asian states to revive the Central Asian (Economic) Cooperation Organization (CA(E)U).

The European Union and Estonia’s interests in Central Asia
Central Asian countries are interested in strengthening ties with Western partners to diversify their political and economic relations and reduce their dependence on Russia and China. The European Union has the opportunity to contribute by supporting the region’s transition to renewable energy, promoting the fight against corruption, and encouraging transparent governance. Estonia’s experience in successfully transitioning from a Soviet system to a democratic and innovative society could serve as a valuable example for the region.

Shifting geopolitical landscape and investment opportunities
The evolving geopolitical situation in Central Asia presents an opportunity for Western countries to invest in the region’s energy infrastructure and support its transition to green energy. However, Russia and China often emerge as faster and seemingly more straightforward partners, as they mainly focus on coal extraction and large-scale infrastructure projects. While the United States and the European Union are also involved in various energy initiatives, most Western investments are aimed toward long-term goals rather than addressing immediate challenges.

The role of education and Western values in Central Asia
Western countries have an opportunity to promote human rights and democracy in Central Asia primarily through education. Educational cooperation and a strong civil society could help the region to adopt the Western values more effectively. Currently, China and Russia are the most active players in the education sector, through initiatives such as the Confucius Institutes and Russian-language schools. Education is being consciously used to advance geopolitical goals — for instance, Russia leverages its schools to expand influence in Central Asia, and China is increasingly following a similar path.

Please note that Estonian version of the report contains five additional appendixes.