Policy brief: Russia's Relations with China and India Since the Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for Estonia and the Baltics in May 2024

Despite Russia's geographical location, with most of its territory and natural resources situated in Asia, Moscow's ties with Asian countries were relatively modest before President Putin's 2012 announcement of Russia's "Pivot to the East". While Russia's isolation following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a significant moment that forced Moscow to look towards Asia more substantively, the real change came with Russia's aggression to Ukraine in 2022.

As of May 2024, more than two years after Russia launched its full-scale war, China and India have still refused to condemn Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Instead, both have taken a neutral stance on the war, characterized by their strategic autonomy and reluctance to align with Western initiatives. Although China and India have adopted similar approaches to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, it is important to note that their reasons for doing so are actually different.

Full report

"Understandably, any signal of stronger cooperation between China and Russia is extremely concerning for Estonia and the Baltic states," note the authors of the report, researchers at the University of Tartu's Asia Centre, Agnieszka Nitza-Makowska, Anastasia Sinitsyna, Kikee Doma Bhutia and Elo Süld. "And as for India, their primary supplier of military defence equipment has been predominantly Russia. However, there are signs that India has recently started to expand its circle of defence industry procurement partners," they add.

Although this report focuses mainly on Estonia, the conclusions are significantly relevant for other Baltic states as well. "Notably, Lithuania is currently the only Baltic state with its own Indo-Pacific strategy," is stated in the introduction of the report. The report identifies what unites and separates Russia and the two dominant Asian countries, and what this means for Estonia and the Baltic states. Structurally, the first part analysis the political, strategic, and economic areas of convergence and divergence between China and Russia and then follows the analysis of the same areas concerning India.